Cogeneration planning under uncertainty. Part II: Decision theory-based assessment of planning alternatives

被引:51
作者
Carpaneto, Enrico [1 ]
Chicco, Gianfranco [1 ]
Mancarella, Pierluigi [2 ]
Russo, Angela [1 ]
机构
[1] Politecn Torino, Dipartimento Ingn Elettr, I-10129 Turin, Italy
[2] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Elect & Elect Engn, London SW7 2AZ, England
关键词
Cogeneration planning; Decision theory; Internal combustion engines; Microturbines; Uncertainty modeling; Weighted regret criterion; ENERGY SUPPLY-SYSTEMS; DISTRIBUTED GENERATION; RISK ANALYSIS; PROBABILISTIC CHOICE; COMBINED HEAT; OPTIMIZATION; INVESTMENT; MARKET; PLANTS;
D O I
10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.08.019
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
This paper discusses specific models and analyses to select the best cogeneration planning solution in the presence of uncertainties on a long-term time scale, completing the approach formulated in the companion paper (Part I). The most convenient solutions are identified among a pre-defined set of planning alternatives according to decision theory-based criteria, upon definition of weighted scenarios and by using the exceeding probabilities of suitable economic indicators as decision variables. Application of the criteria to a real energy system with various technological alternatives operated under different control strategies is illustrated and discussed. The results obtained show that using the Net Present Cost indicator it is always possible to apply the decision theory concepts to select the best planning alternative. Other economic indicators like Discounted Payback Period and Internal Rate of Return exhibit possible application limits for cogeneration planning within the decision theory framework. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:1075 / 1083
页数:9
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