Human influences on wildfire in Alaska from 1988 through 2005: An analysis of the spatial patterns of human impacts

Boreal ecosystems in Alaska are responding to climate change in many ways, including changes in the fire regime. While large-scale wildfires are an essential part of the boreal forest ecosystem, humans are changing fire regimes through ignition and suppression. The authors analyzed the impact humans have on fire ignitions and relative area burned with distance into rivers in Alaska from 1988 to 2005. Additionally, a fire prediction model was created to identify drivers for lightning fires in the boreal forest. Human presence increases the number of ignitions near settlements, roads, and rivers and appears to reduce the area burned within 30 - 40 km of villages and rivers. In contrast to fires near roads and rivers, human presence may somewhat increase the area burned within 30 - 40 km of highways. The fire prediction model indicated that the probability of fire increases as distance from human settlements increases. In contrast, the model indicated that the probability of fire decreases as distance from roads increases and that the probability of fire in relation to distance from rivers depends on the year of analysis. While the ecological consequences of these human impacts are still unclear, this research shows that human influences on fire regime clearly affect the pattern of fire within 40 km of settlements, which is an area that represents 31% of interior Alaska. Future research should focus on more completely understanding the role of human presence in the suppression of wildfires in interior Alaska.