Weight-change trajectory in relation to cancer risk: findings from a nationwide cohort study in South Korea

Objective This study examined relationships between weight-change trajectories and all cancers and obesity-related cancer risks. Methods A total of 1,882,304 men and 899,912 women from the 2002 to 2017 National Health Insurance Service cohort were included. Weight-change trajectories in 2002 to 2009, according to BMI, were determined using group-based trajectory modeling. Cox proportional hazards regression assessed associations between trajectories and cancer incidence. Results Overall, >50% of individuals maintained stable weight, as did two-thirds of those in the overweight and obesity groups. A total of 64,725 men and 37,608 women developed incident cancer. Weight stability in overweight or obesity groups was associated with greater cancer risk. In both sexes, higher weight across BMI groups increased risks of all cancers, obesity-related cancers and thyroid, colorectal, stomach, liver, prostate, and postmenopausal breast cancer. Stratified by BMI, weight gain increased risks of all cancers and obesity-related cancers in men with obesity class I and women with overweight. Weight loss decreased risks of obesity-related cancers, thyroid cancer, and kidney cancer among men with overweight, premenopausal breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancer in women with overweight, and obesity-related cancers and thyroid cancer in women with class I obesity. Conclusions Maintaining weight and avoiding weight gain are crucial for reducing cancer risk, but achieving a stable, normal BMI optimizes cancer prevention.