Estimating the impact of an organised screening programme on cervical cancer incidence: A 26-year study from northern Italy

被引：24

作者：

Bucchi, Lauro ^{[1
,8
]}

Baldacchini, Flavia ^{[1
,8
]}

Mancini, Silvia ^{[1
,8
]}

Ravaioli, Alessandra ^{[1
,8
]}

Giuliani, Orietta ^{[1
,8
]}

Vattiato, Rosa ^{[1
,8
]}

Falcini, Fabio ^{[1
,2
,8
,9
]}

Rossi, Paolo Giorgi ^{[3
]}

Campari, Cinzia ^{[4
]}

Canuti, Debora ^{[5
,21
]}

Di Felice, Enza ^{[6
]}

de Bianchi, Priscilla Sassoli ^{[6
]}

Ferretti, Stefano ^{[6
]}

Bertozzi, Nicoletta ^{[6
]}

Biggeri, Annibale ^{[7
]}

Bertozzi, Nicoletta ^{[6
]}

Di Felice, Enza ^{[6
]}

Ferretti, Stefano ^{[6
]}

Finarelli, Alba Carola ^{[6
]}

Naldoni, Carlo ^{[6
]}

de Bianchi, Priscilla Sassoli ^{[6
]}

Baldacchini, Flavia ^{[1
,8
]}

Bucchi, Lauro ^{[1
,8
]}

Giuliani, Orietta ^{[1
,8
]}

Mancini, Silvia ^{[1
,8
]}

Ravaioli, Alessandra ^{[1
,8
]}

Vattiato, Rosa ^{[1
,8
]}

Falcini, Fabio ^{[1
,2
,8
,9
]}

Borciani, Elisabetta ^{[10
]}

Dataro, Pier Giorgio ^{[10
]}

Gatti, Giorgio ^{[10
]}

Lauri, Alessandro ^{[10
]}

Lombardozzi, Luigi ^{[11
]}

Michiara, Maria ^{[12
,13
]}

Mangone, Lucia ^{[3
]}

Campari, Cinzia ^{[4
]}

Paterlini, Luisa ^{[4
]}

Rubino, Teresa ^{[14
]}

Andresini, Raffaella ^{[15
]}

Carrozzi, Giuliano ^{[15
]}

Corradini, Rossella ^{[15
]}

Goldoni, Carlo Alberto ^{[15
]}

Venturelli, Agar ^{[15
]}

Vezzani, Maria Dirce ^{[15
]}

Bazzani, Carmen ^{[16
]}

Biavati, Patrizia ^{[16
]}

Cristiani, Paolo ^{[16
]}

Manfredi, Marilena ^{[16
]}

Mezzetti, Francesca ^{[16
]}

Pasquini, Adriana ^{[16
]}

机构：

[1] IRCCS, IRST, Ist Sci Romagnolo Studio & Cura Tumori, Romagna Canc Registry,Romagna Canc Inst, Meldola, Forli, Italy

[2] Local Hlth Author, Canc Prevent Unit, Forli, Italy

[3] IRCCS, Local Hlth Author & Arcispedale Santa Maria Nuova, Epidemiol Unit, Reggio Emilia, Italy

[4] IRCCS, Local Hlth Author & Arcispedale Santa Maria Nuova, Canc Screening Unit, Reggio Emilia, Italy

[5] Local Hlth Author, Canc Screening Unit, Rimini, Italy

[6] Reg Adm, Dept Hlth, Bologna, Emilia Romagna, Italy

[7] Univ Florence, Dept Stat Comp Sci & Applicat G Parenti, Florence, Italy

[8] IRCCS, IRST, Romagna Canc Inst, Meldola, Forli, Italy

[9] Local Hlth Author, Forli, Italy

[10] Local Hlth Author, Piacenza, Italy

[11] Local Hlth Author, Parma, Italy

[12] Parma Univ Hosp, Med Oncol Unit, Parma, Italy

[13] Parma Univ Hosp, Parma Canc Registry, Parma, Italy

[14] IRCCS, Local Hlth Author & Arcispedale Santa Maria Nuova, Cerv Vaginal Cytol Unit, Reggio Emilia, Italy

[15] Local Hlth Author, Modena, Italy

[16] Local Hlth Author, Bologna, Italy

[17] Local Hlth Author, Imola, Italy

[18] Local Hlth Author, Ferrara, Italy

[19] Local Hlth Author, Ravenna, Italy

[20] Local Hlth Author, Cesena, Italy

[21] Local Hlth Author, Rimini, Italy

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER | 2019年 / 144卷 / 05期

关键词：

cervical cancer; incidence; rate; trend; screening; effectiveness; log-linear model; age-period-cohort model; QUALITY-ASSURANCE; INVASIVE CANCER; BREAST-CANCER; INTRAEPITHELIAL NEOPLASIA; TEMPORAL VARIATION; NORDIC COUNTRIES; NATURAL-HISTORY; AGE PERIOD; MORTALITY; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.1002/ijc.31806

中图分类号：

R73 [肿瘤学];

学科分类号：

100214 ;

摘要：

The impact of the organised cervical cancer (CC) screening programmes implemented in Europe since the 1990s has been insufficiently evaluated. We investigated the changes in CC incidence following the introduction of a screening programme in the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy). The study period was 1988-2013. The programme, targeting women aged 25-64 years (1,219,000 in 2018), started in 1998. The annual incidence rates that would be expected in 1998-2013 in the absence of screening were estimated, first, by analysing the annual rates in 1988-1997 with a log-linear model and, second, by analysing the annual rates in 1988-2013 with an age-period model in which the period effect was enforced to be linear. Cervical adenocarcinoma incidence trend over the entire period was used to validate both estimates. Observed annual rates were compared to the two series of expected ones with the incidence rate ratio (IRR). Incidence remained stable during 1988-1997, peaked in 1998 and then decreased until 2007, when it stabilised. The two series of expected rates were virtually coincident and their trends roughly paralleled the stable adenocarcinoma incidence trend. After 2007, the median IRR was 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.81) based on the log-linear model and 0.58 (95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.97) based on the age-period model. Thirty-six to seventy-five CC cases were prevented annually for an average annual frequency of 6.5 per 100,000 women in the target population. In summary, consistent circumstantial evidences were obtained that the organised screening programme brought about a 40% reduction in annual CC incidence after 10 years.

引用

页码：1017 / 1026

页数：10

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