A new probability of detection model for updating crack distribution of offshore structures

There exists model uncertainty of probability of detection for inspecting ship structures with nondestructive inspection techniques. Based on a comparison of several existing probability of detection (POD) models, a new probability of detection model is proposed for the updating of crack size distribution. Furthermore, the theoretical derivation shows that most existing probability of detection models are special cases of the new probability of detection model. The least square method is adopted for determining the values of parameters in the new POD model. This new model is also compared with other existing probability of detection models. The results indicate that the new probability of detection model can fit the inspection data better. This new probability of detection model is then applied to the analysis of the problem of crack size updating for offshore structures. The Bayesian updating method is used to analyze the effect of probability of detection models on the posterior distribution of a crack size. The results show that different probabilities of detection models generate different posterior distributions of a crack size for offshore structures.