At the water's edge: The decline of partisan liberal internationalism?

In this paper we examine the decline in the 'liberal consensus hypothesis' or the proposition that there has been a move away in the West from a partisan consensus that favors commitment to international engagement and multilateralism towards a greater scepticism about international engagement. Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project, we examine whether changes in consensus were the result of shifts in the international environment or a function of domestic political changes (such as party systems changes and economic performance). We test these hypotheses using data from 131 parties in 23 Organization for Economic Development countries across 365 elections from 1945 to 2010 and find that mixed support for the decline hypothesis. We find that positive partisan consensus in support of internationalism was higher after 1991 (that is, after the Cold War) than before (contrary to the decline in liberal consensus argument), but was lower after 2001 than before (in support of the hypothesis). We offer an explanation for these seemingly disparate findings.