Aquatic foods to nourish nations

被引：404

作者：

Golden, Christopher D. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Koehn, J. Zachary ^{[4
]}

Shepon, Alon ^{[1
,5
,6
]}

Passarelli, Simone ^{[1
]}

Free, Christopher M. ^{[7
,8
]}

Viana, Daniel F. ^{[1
,9
]}

Matthey, Holger ^{[10
]}

Eurich, Jacob G. ^{[8
,11
]}

Gephart, Jessica A. ^{[12
]}

Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne ^{[13
]}

Nyboer, Elizabeth A. ^{[14
]}

Lynch, Abigail J. ^{[15
]}

Kjellevold, Marian ^{[16
]}

Bromage, Sabri ^{[1
]}

Charlebois, Pierre ^{[17
]}

Barange, Manuel ^{[17
]}

Vannuccini, Stefania ^{[17
]}

Cao, Ling ^{[18
]}

Kleisner, Kristin M. ^{[19
]}

Rimm, Eric B. ^{[1
]}

Danaei, Goodarz ^{[3
,20
]}

DeSisto, Camille ^{[21
]}

Kelahan, Heather ^{[1
]}

Fiorella, Kathryn J. ^{[22
,23
]}

Little, David C. ^{[24
]}

Allison, Edward H. ^{[25
]}

Fanzo, Jessica ^{[26
,27
]}

Thilsted, Shakuntala H. ^{[25
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hearth, Dept Nutr, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[2] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hearth, Dept Environm Hearth, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[3] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hearth, Dept Global Hearth & Populat, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[4] Stanford Univ, Ctr Ocean Solut, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[5] Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Environm Studies, Tel Aviv, Israel

[6] Tel Aviv Univ, Steinhardt Museum Nat Hist, Tel Aviv, Israel

[7] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[8] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Marine Sci Inst, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[9] Conservat Int, Betty & Gordon Moore Ctr Sci, Arlington, VA USA

[10] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Food & Agr Org, Markets & Trade Div, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[11] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Ecol Evolut & Marine Biol, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[12] Amer Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Washington, DC 20016 USA

[13] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[14] Carleton Univ, Dept Biol, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[15] US Geol Survey, Natl Climate Adaptat Sci Ctr, 959 Natl Ctr, Reston, VA 22092 USA

[16] Inst Marine Res, Bergen, Norway

[17] Div Food & Agr Org United Nations FAO, Fisheries & Aquacurture Div, Rome, Italy

[18] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Oceanog, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[19] Environm Def Fund, New York, NY USA

[20] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hearth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA USA

[21] Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27708 USA

[22] Cornell Univ, Dept Populat Med & Diagnost Sci, Ithaca, NY USA

[23] Cornell Univ, Publ Hearth Program, Ithaca, NY USA

[24] Univ Stirling, Inst Aquaculture, Stirling, Scotland

[25] WorldFish, Bayan Lepas, Malaysia

[26] Johns Hopkins Univ, Bloomberg Sch Publ Hearth, Washington, DC USA

[27] Johns Hopkins Univ, Nitze Sch Adv Int Studies, Washington, DC USA

来源：

NATURE | 2021年 / 598卷 / 7880期

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

FISH; COUNTRIES; DEMAND;

D O I：

10.1038/s41586-021-03917-1

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Despite contributing to healthy diets for billions of people, aquatic foods are often undervalued as a nutritional solution because their diversity is often reduced to the protein and energy value of a single food type ('seafood' or 'fish')(1-4). Here we create a cohesive model that unites terrestrial foods with nearly 3,000 taxa of aquatic foods to understand the future impact of aquatic foods on human nutrition. We project two plausible futures to 2030: a baseline scenario with moderate growth in aquatic animal-source food (AASF) production, and a high-production scenario with a 15-million-tonne increased supply of AASFs over the business-as-usual scenario in 2030, driven largely by investment and innovation in aquaculture production. By comparing changes in AASF consumption between the scenarios, we elucidate geographic and demographic vulnerabilities and estimate health impacts from diet-related causes. Globally, we find that a high-production scenario will decrease AASF prices by 26% and increase their consumption, thereby reducing the consumption of red and processed meats that can lead to diet-related non-communicable diseases(5,6) while also preventing approximately 166 million cases of inadequate micronutrient intake. This finding provides a broad evidentiary basis for policy makers and development stakeholders to capitalize on the potential of aquatic foods to reduce food and nutrition insecurity and tackle malnutrition in all its forms.

引用

页码：315 / +

页数：21