Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system

被引：601

作者：

MacLachlan, C. ^{[1
]}

Arribas, A. ^{[1
]}

Peterson, K. A. ^{[1
]}

Maidens, A. ^{[1
]}

Fereday, D. ^{[1
]}

Scaife, A. A. ^{[1
]}

Gordon, M. ^{[1
]}

Vellinga, M. ^{[1
]}

Williams, A. ^{[1
]}

Comer, R. E. ^{[1
]}

Camp, J. ^{[1
]}

Xavier, P. ^{[1
]}

Madec, G. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[2] LOCEAN IPSL, French Natl Ctr Sci Res, Paris, France

来源：

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2015年 / 141卷 / 689期

关键词：

seasonal forecasting; ensembles; Arctic Oscillation; ENSO; WNPSTH; MJO; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; MODEL RESOLUTION; CLIMATE MODEL; PREDICTION; OCEAN; PREDICTABILITY; CIRCULATION; UNCERTAINTIES;

D O I：

10.1002/qj.2396

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216-0.7 degrees) and the ocean (0.25 degrees), and implementation of a 3D-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.

引用

页码：1072 / 1084

页数：13

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