Prognostic Factors for Recurrence in Esophageal Cancer Patients Treated With Neoadjuvant Therapy and Surgery: A Single-institution Analysis

Background The purpose of this study is to analyze potential predisposing factors for a higher risk of recurrence in our esophageal cancer patients managed with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and surgery, and to determine their impact on disease-free survival (DFS) and time to recurrence. Methods A total of 154 of 232 patients staged T1b to T4a managed electively at our institute from July 2005 through July 2015 with a tri-modality approach were retrospectively evaluated. Basic demographic, clinical, radiological, operative, and pathological disease-related parameters, along with waiting time for surgery and type of neoadjuvant modality used, were assessed as potential risk factors. The primary endpoint was the impact of these on the risk of recurrence. The secondary endpoint was to study their relation on DFS and time to recurrence. Results The recurrence rate in this particular study was 33.1% over a median follow-up of 35 months (interquartile range = 19-50.3). The median time to recurrence was 12 months, and 94% of recurrences occurred within two years. The median DFS was 33 months, and the one- and three-year DFS was 90% and 72%, respectively. On univariate and multivariate analysis, a complete pathological response (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.8, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.41-10.11), negative resection margins (HR: 5.9, 95% CI: 1.69-20.45), and a low nodal index (HR: 6.3, 95% CI: 1.37-28.67 for an index of 0.1-0.2; and HR: 15.2, 95% CI: 0.96-241.73 for an index of >0.2) were found as statistically significant (P = < 0.05) for risk to recurrence. In addition to these three, a low comorbidity index (P = 0.03; HR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.16-10.52) was an individual positive predictor of DFS. Conclusions A complete pathological response, low nodal index, and margin-negative resection were the identified predictors of freedom from recurrence, with a better DFS and a low comorbidity index as additional indicators of prolonged DFS.