The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program

For three decades or more, the DPRK has built its capability in liquid propellant ballistic missiles based on Russian liquid propellant rocket motors, guidance and airframe technologies first developed in the 1950s to early 1960s. But the DPRK is now suddenly developing a completely new kind of ballistic missile - the solid propellant KN-11 submarine launched ballistic missile. Although there are many uncertainties about the detailed characteristics and sources of the technologies associated with the KN-11, enough is known to determine that it should at a minimum be able to carry a 1500 kilogram warhead to nearly 450 kilometers or a 1000 kilogram warhead to 600 kilometers or more. This means that when the KN-11 is eventually deployed on diesel-electric submarines, it will almost certainly have the payload and range to carry heavy first generation nuclear warheads designed for ballistic missile delivery from large areas of ocean. If the DPRK operates its missile carrying submarines in the shallow water of the Yellow Sea, even the most advanced existing US and ROK anti-submarine warfare systems will be ineffective against such a submarine-based threat - making it a highly survivable nuclear weapon delivery system. The largest challenge to the success of the KN-11 program will be implementing a sufficiently robust nuclear warhead to survive the extreme vibrations and accelerations that occur during the powered flight of a missile and the roughly equal decelerations from atmospheric reentry. This essay also describes satellite launch vehicles and warhead-carrying ballistic missiles being operated and under development by the DPRK.