Excessive confidence in visually-based estimates

被引：12

作者：

Andrade, Eduardo B. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

来源：

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES | 2011年 / 116卷 / 02期

关键词：

Overconfidence; Risk perception; Risk taking; Visual perception; Probability estimates; Gambling; Global processing; Numerosity; Likelihood judgment; PERCEIVED NUMEROSITY; GLOBAL FEATURES; OVERCONFIDENCE; ENUMERATION; EXPECTANCY; ILLUSION; UTILITY; TASK; DOTS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.07.002

中图分类号：

B849 [应用心理学];

学科分类号：

040203 ;

摘要：

People exhibit excessive confidence in visually-based estimates, which in turn biases decision making. Three experiments support this assertion. Experiment 1 shows a strong impact of presentation format on estimation of proportions. Experiment 2 shows that people rely on these erroneous estimates to make incentive-compatible decisions even when objective information can be easily obtained. Experiment 3 demonstrates that the biased decisions disappear when confidence in visually-based estimates is called into question by the perceived complexity of the stimulus. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：252 / 261

页数：10

共 28 条

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