Downscaling ECMWF seasonal precipitation forecasts in Europe using the RCA model

被引：20
作者：
Diez, E. [1 ]
Orfila, B. [1 ]
Frias, M. D. [2 ]
Fernandez, J. [2 ]
Cofino, A. S. [2 ]
Gutierrez, J. M. [3 ]
机构：
[1] Agencia Estatal Meteorol AEMET, Madrid 28040, Spain
[2] Univ Cantabria, Dept Appl Math & Computat, E-39005 Santander, Spain
[3] Inst Fis Cantabria CSIC UC, Santander 39005, Spain
来源：
TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY | 2011年 / 63卷 / 04期
关键词：
PREDICTION; SIMULATIONS; NORDESTE; BRAZIL; SPAIN;
D O I：
10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00523.x
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
The operational performance and usefulness of regional climate models at seasonal time scales are assessed by downscaling an ensemble of global seasonal forecasts. The Rossby Centre RCA regional model was applied to downscale a five-member ensemble from the ECMWF System3 global model in the European Atlantic domain for the period 1981-2001. One month lead time global and regional precipitation predictions were compared over Europe-and particularly over Spain-focusing the study in SON (autumn) dry events. A robust tercile-based probabilistic validation approach was applied to compare the forecasts from global and regional models, obtaining significant skill in both cases, but over a wider area for the later. Finally, we also analyse the performance of a mixed ensemble combining both forecasts.
引用
收藏
页码：757 / 762
页数：6
相关论文
共 50 条
[41]   Characterising uncertainty in precipitation downscaling using a Bayesian approach [J].
Nury, Ahmad Hasan ;
Sharma, Ashish ;
Marshall, Lucy ;
Mehrotra, Raj .
ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES, 2019, 129 :189-197
[42]   Statistical Learning Methods as a Basis for Skillful Seasonal Temperature Forecasts in Europe [J].
Kamarainen, Matti ;
Uotila, Petteri ;
Karpechko, Alexey Yu. ;
Hyvarinen, Otto ;
Lehtonen, Ilari ;
Raisanen, Jouni .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (17) :5363-5379
[43]   Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe [J].
Soares, Marta Bruno ;
Dessai, Suraje .
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2016, 137 (1-2) :89-103
[44]   Comparative Analysis of Precipitation Forecasts in China Between Two Initialization Times of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) [J].
Pan, Liujie ;
Zhang, Hongfang ;
Fan, Qianying ;
Qi, Chunjuan ;
Zhang, Li ;
Dai, Changming .
ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2025, 61 (03)
[45]   Dynamical Downscaling in Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Comparison between RegCM- and WRF-Based Approaches [J].
Sangelantoni, Lorenzo ;
Ricchi, Antonio ;
Ferretti, Rossella ;
Redaelli, Gianluca .
ATMOSPHERE, 2021, 12 (06)
[46]   Dynamical downscaling of the precipitation in Northeast Brazil with a regional climate model during contrasting years [J].
Santos e Silva, C. M. ;
Silva, A. ;
Oliveira, P. ;
Lima, K. C. .
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2014, 15 (01) :50-57
[47]   Dynamical-statistical downscaling of seasonal hindcasts of temperature and precipitation over South America [J].
Tavares, Priscila da Silva ;
Rodrigues, Daniela Carneiro ;
Chou, Sin Chan ;
Laureanti, Nicole Cristine ;
Medeiros, Gustavo Sueiro ;
Gomes, Jorge Luis ;
Vergasta, Leonardo Alves ;
Correia, Francis Wagner Silva .
RBRH-REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE RECURSOS HIDRICOS, 2025, 30
[48]   Statistical Bias Correction of Precipitation Forecasts Based on Quantile Mapping on the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Scale [J].
Li, Xiaomeng ;
Wu, Huan ;
Nanding, Nergui ;
Chen, Sirong ;
Hu, Ying ;
Li, Lingfeng .
REMOTE SENSING, 2023, 15 (07)
[49]   Seasonal precipitation forecasts over China using monthly large-scale oceanic-atmospheric indices [J].
Peng, Zhaoliang ;
Wang, Q. J. ;
Bennett, James C. ;
Pokhrel, Prafulla ;
Wang, Ziru .
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2014, 519 :792-802
[50]   Seasonal Forecast of Early Summer Rainfall at Stations in South China Using a Statistical Downscaling Model [J].
Lu, Zheng ;
Guo, Yan ;
Zhu, Jiangshan ;
Kang, Ning .
WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 2020, 35 (04) :1633-1643
12345