Downscaling ECMWF seasonal precipitation forecasts in Europe using the RCA model

被引：20

作者：

Diez, E. ^{[1
]}

Orfila, B. ^{[1
]}

Frias, M. D. ^{[2
]}

Fernandez, J. ^{[2
]}

Cofino, A. S. ^{[2
]}

Gutierrez, J. M. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Agencia Estatal Meteorol AEMET, Madrid 28040, Spain

[2] Univ Cantabria, Dept Appl Math & Computat, E-39005 Santander, Spain

[3] Inst Fis Cantabria CSIC UC, Santander 39005, Spain

来源：

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY | 2011年 / 63卷 / 04期

关键词：

PREDICTION; SIMULATIONS; NORDESTE; BRAZIL; SPAIN;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00523.x

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The operational performance and usefulness of regional climate models at seasonal time scales are assessed by downscaling an ensemble of global seasonal forecasts. The Rossby Centre RCA regional model was applied to downscale a five-member ensemble from the ECMWF System3 global model in the European Atlantic domain for the period 1981-2001. One month lead time global and regional precipitation predictions were compared over Europe-and particularly over Spain-focusing the study in SON (autumn) dry events. A robust tercile-based probabilistic validation approach was applied to compare the forecasts from global and regional models, obtaining significant skill in both cases, but over a wider area for the later. Finally, we also analyse the performance of a mixed ensemble combining both forecasts.

引用

页码：757 / 762

页数：6

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