Immuno-epidemiological model of two-stage epidemic growth

被引:15
作者
Banerjee, Malay [1 ]
Tokarev, Alexey [2 ]
Volpert, Vitaly [2 ,3 ,4 ]
机构
[1] IIT Kanpur, Dept Math & Stat, Kanpur 208016, Uttar Pradesh, India
[2] Peoples Friendship Univ Russia RUDN Univ, 6 Miklukho Maklaya St, Moscow 117198, Russia
[3] Univ Lyon 1, Inst Camille Jordan, CNRS, UMR 5208, F-69622 Villeurbanne, France
[4] INRIA Lyon La Doua, INRIA Team Dracula, F-69603 Villeurbanne, France
关键词
Epidemic; immune response; over-exponential growth; influenza; COVID-19; DYNAMICS;
D O I
10.1051/mmnp/2020012
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza show that the growth rate of the number of infected individuals can increase passing from one exponential growth rate to another one with a larger exponent. Such behavior is not described by conventional epidemiological models. In this work an immuno-epidemiological model is proposed in order to describe this two-stage growth. It takes into account that the growth in the number of infected individuals increases the initial viral load and provides a passage from the first stage of epidemic where only people with weak immune response are infected to the second stage where people with strong immune response are also infected. This scenario may be viewed as an increase of the effective number of susceptible increasing the effective growth rate of infected.
引用
收藏
页数:11
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [31] Heterogeneity Aware Two-Stage Group Testing
    Attia, Mohamed A.
    Chang, Wei-Ting
    Tandon, Ravi
    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SIGNAL PROCESSING, 2021, 69 : 3977 - 3990
  • [32] Pathway-Structured Predictive Model for Cancer Survival Prediction: A Two-Stage Approach
    Zhang, Xinyan
    Li, Yan
    Akinyemiju, Tomi
    Ojesina, Akinyemi I.
    Buckhaults, Phillip
    Liu, Nianjun
    Xu, Bo
    Yi, Nengjun
    GENETICS, 2017, 205 (01) : 89 - +
  • [33] Persistence and positive steady states of a two-stage structured population model with mixed dispersals
    Khachatryan, M.
    Onyido, M. A.
    Salako, R. B.
    NONLINEAR ANALYSIS-REAL WORLD APPLICATIONS, 2025, 81
  • [34] STABLE PERIODIC OSCILLATIONS IN A TWO-STAGE CANCER MODEL OF TUMOR AND IMMUNE SYSTEM INTERACTIONS
    Liu, Dan
    Ruan, Shigui
    Zhu, Deming
    MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 2012, 9 (02) : 347 - 368
  • [35] Evidence of two-stage melting of Wigner solids
    Knighton, Talbot
    Wu, Zhe
    Huang, Jian
    Serafin, Alessandro
    Xia, J. S.
    Pfeiffer, L. N.
    West, K. W.
    PHYSICAL REVIEW B, 2018, 97 (08)
  • [36] A Compartmental Epidemiological Model Applied to the Covid-19 Epidemic
    Baron, Anne-Flore
    Boulant, Olivier
    Panico, Ivan
    Vayatis, Nicolas
    IMAGE PROCESSING ON LINE, 2021, 11 : 105 - 119
  • [37] Two-Stage Growth for Highly Ordered Epitaxial C60 Films on Au(111)
    Tully, Alexandra B.
    Greenwood, Rysa
    Na, MengXing
    King, Vanessa
    Marsell, Erik
    Niu, Yuran
    Golias, Evangelos
    Mills, Arthur K.
    Levy, Giorgio
    Michiardi, Matteo
    Menezes, Darius
    Yu, Jiabin
    Zhdanovich, Sergey
    Damascelli, Andrea
    Jones, David J.
    Burke, Sarah A.
    JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY C, 2024, 128 (42) : 18128 - 18134
  • [38] Global dynamics of an epidemic model with a two-threshold policy
    Zhang, Yue
    Zu, Jian
    Sun, Xiaodan
    APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING, 2024, 130 : 514 - 535
  • [39] On a two-strain epidemic model involving delay equations
    Meziane, Mohammed
    Moussaoui, Ali
    Volpert, Vitaly
    MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 2023, 20 (12) : 20683 - 20711
  • [40] Forecasting hospital outpatient volume using an optimized medical two-stage hybrid grey model
    Ren, Youyang
    Wang, Yuhong
    Xia, Lin
    Liu, Wei
    Tao, Ran
    GREY SYSTEMS-THEORY AND APPLICATION, 2024, 14 (04) : 671 - 707