A Scoring System for Predicting the Prognosis of Late-Onset Severe Pneumonia after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Late-onset severe pneumonia (LOSP) is defined as severe pneumonia developing during the late phase of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Because of the high mortality in patients with LOSP, it is important to identify prognostic factors. In this study, we aimed to develop a risk score system with broad applicability that can help predict the risk of LOSP-associated mortality. We retrospectively analyzed 100 patients with LOSP after allo-HSCT between June 2009 and July 2017. The assessment variables included immune, nutritional, and metabolic parameters at the onset of LOSP. Of these 100 patients, 45 (45%) eventually died, and 55 (55%) were positive for organisms, most commonly viruses. In the multivariate analysis, higher monocyte count (>= 0.20 x 10(9)/L versus <0.20 x 10(9)/L; P =.001), higher albumin level (>= 30.5 g/L versus <30.5 g/L; P =.044), lower lactic dehydrogenase level (<250 UAL versus >= 250 UAL; P =.008) and lower blood urea nitrogen concentration (<7.2 mmol/L versus >7.2 mmol/L; P =.026) at the onset of LOSP were significantly associated with better 60-day survival. A risk score system based on the foregoing results showed that the probability of 60-day survival decreased with increasing risk factors, from 96.3% in the low-risk group to 49.1% in the intermediate-risk group and 12.5% in the high-risk group. Our results indicate that this scoring system using 4 variables can stratify patients with different probabilities of survival after LOSP, which suggests that patients' immune, nutritional, and metabolic status are crucial factors in determining outcome. (C) 2021 The American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.