Quantifying maize grain yield losses caused by climate change based on extensive field data across China

被引：56

作者：

Hou, Peng ^{[1
]}

Liu, Yuee ^{[2
]}

Liu, Wanmao ^{[1
,3
]}

Yang, Haishun ^{[4
]}

Xie, Ruizhi ^{[1
]}

Wang, Keru ^{[1
]}

Ming, Bo ^{[1
]}

Liu, Guangzhou ^{[1
]}

Xue, Jun ^{[1
]}

Wang, Yonghong ^{[5
]}

Zhao, Rulang ^{[5
]}

Zhang, Wenjie ^{[5
]}

Wang, Yongjun ^{[6
]}

Bian, Shaofeng ^{[6
]}

Ren, Hong ^{[7
]}

Zhao, Xiaoyan ^{[7
]}

Liu, Peng ^{[8
]}

Chang, Jianzhi ^{[9
]}

Zhang, Guohe ^{[9
]}

Liu, Jiayou ^{[10
]}

Yuan, Liuzheng ^{[10
]}

Zhao, Haiyan ^{[11
]}

Shi, Lei ^{[11
]}

Zhang, Lili ^{[12
]}

Yu, Lin ^{[13
]}

Gao, Julin ^{[14
]}

Yu, Xiaofang ^{[14
]}

Wang, Zhigang ^{[14
]}

Shen, Liguo ^{[15
]}

Ji, Ping ^{[15
]}

Yang, Shuzong ^{[16
]}

Zhang, Zhongdong ^{[17
]}

Xue, Jiquan ^{[18
]}

Ma, Xiangfeng ^{[19
]}

Wang, Xiuquan ^{[20
]}

Lu, Tingqi ^{[20
]}

Dong, Benchun ^{[21
]}

Li, Gang ^{[21
]}

Ma, Baoxin ^{[22
]}

Li, Jinqin ^{[23
]}

Deng, Xiufeng ^{[24
]}

Liu, Yonghong ^{[25
]}

Yang, Qin ^{[25
]}

Jia, Chunlan ^{[26
]}

Chen, Xianping ^{[27
]}

Fu, Hua ^{[27
]}

Li, Shaokun ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Crop Sci, Minist Agr & Rural Affairs, Key Lab Crop Physiol & Ecol, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

[2] Beijing Acad Agr & Forestry Sci, Maize Res Ctr, Beijing 100097, Peoples R China

[3] Shihezi Univ, Coll Agron, Key Lab Oasis Ecoagr, Xinjiang Prod & Construct Grp, Shihezi 832000, Peoples R China

[4] Univ Nebraska Lincoln, Dept Agron & Hort, POB 830915, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA

[5] Ningxia Acad Agr Sci, Inst Crop Sci, Yongning 750105, Ningxia Hui Aut, Peoples R China

[6] Jilin Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Environm, Changchun 130033, Peoples R China

[7] Guizhou Acad Agr Sci, Guiyang 550006, Peoples R China

[8] Shandong Agr Univ, Coll Agron, Tai An 271018, Shandong, Peoples R China

[9] Inst Henan Xunxian Agr Sci, Xunxian 456284, Peoples R China

[10] Luohe Acad Agr Sci, Luohe 462300, Peoples R China

[11] Liaoning Acad Agr Sci, Inst Maize, Shenyang 110161, Peoples R China

[12] Dandong Acad Agr Sci, Dandong 118109, Peoples R China

[13] Heilongjiang Acad Land Reclamat & Agr Sci, Inst Crops, Jiamusi 154007, Peoples R China

[14] Inner Mongolia Agr Univ, Hohhot 010018, Peoples R China

[15] Jilin Acad Agr Sci, Jilin 132001, Jilin, Peoples R China

[16] Agr Tech Extens Ctr Zunhua, Zunhua 064200, Peoples R China

[17] Shanxi Acad Agr Sci, Inst Maize, Xinzhou 034000, Peoples R China

[18] Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Agron, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

[19] Yulin Agr Technol Work Stn, Yulin 719000, Peoples R China

[20] Mianyang Acad Agr Sci, Mianyang 621023, Sichuan, Peoples R China

[21] Tonghua Acad Agr Sci, Tonghua 135007, Peoples R China

[22] Nenjiang Inst Agr Sci, Qiqihar 161041, Peoples R China

[23] Agr Tech Extens Ctr Tongliao, Tongliao 028000, Peoples R China

[24] Laizhou Jinhai Seed Ind Co Ltd, Laizhou 261418, Peoples R China

[25] Sichuan Acad Agr Sci, Inst Crop Sci, Chengdu 610066, Peoples R China

[26] Shandong Denghai Seed Ind Co Ltd, Laizhou, Shandong, Peoples R China

[27] Suzhou Acad A&F Sci, Suzhou 234000, Peoples R China

来源：

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING | 2021年 / 174卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Maize; Grain yield; Climate change; Temperature; Solar radiation; ACCUMULATED TEMPERATURE; GROWTH-RESPONSE; CROP PRODUCTION; PLANT-DENSITY; SOWING DATE; WHEAT; EFFICIENCY; IMPACTS; CANOPY; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105811

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Climate change can have significant impacts on maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield. In this study, we used extensive multi-year field experimental data (n = 423) across different climatic regions of China to distinguish effects of different climate factors on maize grain yield and mimicking the effect of climate change, in particular, temperature and solar radiation. Across the years and climatic regions, the major driver for the yield difference was found to be the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and accumulated photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). 1 degrees C decrease in DTR and 100 MJ decrease in accumulated PAR resulted in 1.0 t ha(-1) and 0.85 t ha(-1) reduction in maize grain yield, respectively. 1 degrees C increase in growing season mean temperature (Tmean) and minimum temperature (Tmin) resulted in 0.83 t ha(-1) and 0.67 t ha(-1) maize grain yield reduction. By mimicking the effect of climate change on maize grain yield, it was found that 1 degrees C increase in Tmean resulted in 0.83 t ha(-1) (5.8%) maize grain yield reduction. Decrease in PAR also decreased maize grain yield significantly and the 1% decrease in PAR decreased maize grain yield by 0.15 tons per ha. Among all the five cultivars in this study, yield reductions of ZD958 and NH101 induced by 1 degrees C increase in Tmean were the smallest compared to other three cultivars. The quantitative analysis can provide important guidance to predict possible quantitative outcomes of future changes in crop productivity due to climate change and search for effective mitigation strategies such as cultivar selection.

引用

页数：8

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