Estimating the future clinical and economic benefits of improving osteoporosis diagnosis and treatment among women in China: a simulation projection model from 2020 to 2040

Annual osteoporotic fractures is projected to increase by 135% from 6.9 M (2020) to 16.2 M (2040), increasing the economic burden by 121% from $29.9B (2020) to $65.9B (2040). Introduction Globally, aging populations drive significant increases in osteoporosis prevalence. In China, the number of women aged >= 65 years is expected to more than double from 2020 (91.5 M) to 2040 (183.6 M). Using a microsimulation model, impact of increased diagnosis and treatment of postmenopausal women (PMW) with osteoporosis on anticipated reduction in fractures and associated costs in China from 2020 to 2040 was projected. Methods A microsimulation model was developed to project annual incidence and costs of osteoporotic fractures among PMW in China from 2020 to 2040. Fracture risk was estimated using the simplified Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). Fractures estimates were based on annualized FRAX risk and impact of treatment. Published literature informed inputs for direct and indirect fracture costs, DXA screening costs, and treatment costs and efficacy. China's current screening and treatment rates were compared against 50% increases to (i) case finding (screening rate and subsequent treatment rate) and (ii) treatment rate among those at highest fracture risk. Results From 2020 to 2040, 241.7 M osteoporotic fractures are projected to cost $997B. Increased treatment scenario prevented 24.6 M fractures and saved $56B. Increased case finding scenario prevented 26 M fractures and saved $61.7B. Conclusion Osteoporosis underdiagnosis and undertreatment among the aging Chinese population will considerably burden patients, caregivers, and society. Policy changes to increase screening and treatment rates may result in significant cost savings and clinical benefits.