Mathematical modeling for the transmission potential of Zika virus with optimal control strategies

被引:37
作者
Ali, Aatif [1 ]
Iqbal, Quaid [1 ]
Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. [2 ]
Islam, Saeed [1 ]
机构
[1] Abdul Wali Khan Univ, Dept Math, Mardan 23200, Khyber Pakhtunk, Pakistan
[2] Kwame Nkrumah Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Kumasi, Ghana
关键词
D O I
10.1140/epjp/s13360-022-02368-5
中图分类号
O4 [物理学];
学科分类号
0702 ;
摘要
In this paper, we formulate a new Zika virus model in light of both mosquito and human transmission along with the human awareness in the host population. Initially, we assumed that the virus is transmitted to humans through a mosquito bite and then transmits to his or her sexual partner. Further, we investigated the mathematical results and stability analysis and proved that the model is asymptotically stable both locally and globally. We applied the Castillo-Chavez approach for establishing global stability. Similarly, we presented the existence of endemic equilibrium and demonstrate that the model is locally and globally asymptotically stable using a suitable Lyapunov function at endemic state, upon backward bifurcation analysis we proposed that no bifurcation exists for our model. The sensitivity analysis is carried out and verified that the probability per biting of the susceptible mosquito with the infected human is the most sensitive parameter. Furthermore, we developed a Zika control model and incorporated three controls. These controls are prevention through bed nets and mosquito repellents, treatment of Zika patients, and the spray of insecticides on mosquitoes. The graphical results of the model with control and without control are obtained through a numerical scheme. The infection caused by the Zika virus would be more efficiently eliminated using the new idea of human awareness and bilinear incidence presented in this paper.
引用
收藏
页数:30
相关论文
共 27 条
[11]   Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016 [J].
Dinh, Linh ;
Chowell, Gerardo ;
Mizumoto, Kenji ;
Nishiura, Hiroshi .
THEORETICAL BIOLOGY AND MEDICAL MODELLING, 2016, 13 :1-7
[12]   Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis [J].
Gao, Daozhou ;
Lou, Yijun ;
He, Daihai ;
Porco, Travis C. ;
Kuang, Yang ;
Chowell, Gerardo ;
Ruan, Shigui .
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 2016, 6
[13]  
Hethcote H.W., 1981, Differential Equations and Applications in Ecology, Epidemics and Population Problems, Claremont Conference Proceedings, P65, DOI DOI 10.1016/B978-0-12-148360-9.50011-1
[14]   Impact of temperature on the linewidth enhancement factor of chirped InAs/InP broadband quantum-dash lasers around 1610 nm [J].
Khan, Mohammed Zahed Mustafa .
JOURNAL OF NANOPHOTONICS, 2019, 13 (02)
[15]   Zika: the origin and spread of a mosquito-borne virus [J].
Kindhauser, Mary Kay ;
Allen, Tomas ;
Frank, Veronika ;
Santhana, Ravi Shankar ;
Dye, Christopher .
BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, 2016, 94 (09) :675-686
[16]   Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak [J].
Kucharski, Adam J. ;
Funk, Sebastian ;
Eggo, Rosalind M. ;
Mallet, Henri-Pierre ;
Edmunds, W. John ;
Nilles, Eric J. .
PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, 2016, 10 (05)
[17]  
Lee Eva K, 2016, AMIA Annu Symp Proc, V2016, P743
[18]  
Lenhart S., 2007, Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models, DOI DOI 10.1201/9781420011418
[19]   A geometric approach to global-stability problems [J].
Li, MY ;
Muldowney, JS .
SIAM JOURNAL ON MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS, 1996, 27 (04) :1070-1083
[20]   Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States [J].
Manore, Carrie A. ;
Ostfeld, Richard S. ;
Agusto, Folashade B. ;
Gaff, Holly ;
LaDeau, Shannon L. .
PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, 2017, 11 (01)