Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

被引：62

作者：

Salzmann, Marc ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Leipzig, Inst Meteorol, Vor Hosp Tore 1, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany

来源：

SCIENCE ADVANCES | 2016年 / 2卷 / 06期

基金：

欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

GAS-INDUCED CHANGES; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; CLIMATE MODEL; AEROSOLS; IMPACT; VARIABILITY; CIRCULATION; CMIP5; SENSITIVITY; SIMULATION;

D O I：

10.1126/sciadv.1501572

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per Kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K-1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

引用

页数：6

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