Heat Roadmap Europe: strategic heating transition typology as a basis for policy recommendations

In order to support European-wide transition of heating systems, it is useful to categorise the types of transitions that are necessary. Coherent actions are needed at (supra-)national level to support transition aligned with the energy efficiency first principle and long-term development of a smart energy system. Owing to the decentralised nature of heating, transition must also reflect particular local circumstances. This article uses commonalities between countries to create a representative typology, which can suggest appropriate policies for transition. Following the energy efficiency first principle, transition should include supply-side and demand-side efficiency to ensure coherency and efficient use of resources. Their comparative analysis supports implementing the energy efficiency first principle locally, and a more coherent European strategy for the heating sector. Methodologically, 14 national heating strategies are considered which include current and future energy system developments, demand- and supply side energy efficiency, hectare-level thermal mapping and energy system analysis. Four heat sector types are proposed and discussed. These are (1) extant heat planning traditions, aiming for more efficiency and integration; (2) extant heating infrastructure, aiming to refurbish and upgrade both building stock and existing heating infrastructure; (3) existing gas infrastructure, requiring radical transition; (4) and those without strong historic heat planning traditions.