Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada

被引:3
作者
Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa [1 ,2 ]
Spence, Kelsey L. [3 ]
Ogden, Nicholas H. [1 ,2 ]
Fazil, Aamir [1 ,2 ]
Turgeon, Patricia [1 ,2 ]
Otten, Ainsley [1 ,2 ]
Waddell, Lisa A. [1 ,2 ]
Ng, Victoria [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Publ Hlth Risk Sci Div, Infect Dis Prevent & Control Branch, Natl Microbiol Lab, Guelph, ON, Canada
[2] Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Publ Hlth Risk Sci Div, Infect Dis Prevent & Control Branch, Natl Microbiol Lab, St Hyacinthe, PQ, Canada
[3] Univ Guelph, Ontario Vet Coll, Dept Populat Med, Guelph, ON, Canada
来源
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE | 2021年 / 8卷 / 11期
关键词
Great Barrington Declaration; COVID-19; vaccination; agent-based model; age-stratified interventions; Canada; INTERVENTIONS;
D O I
10.1098/rsos.210834
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Public health measures applied exclusively within vulnerable populations have been suggested as an alternative to community-wide interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. With the population demography and healthcare capacity of Canada as an example, a stochastic age-stratified agent-based model was used to explore the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic under three intervention scenarios (infection-preventing vaccination, illness-preventing vaccination and shielding) in individuals above three age thresholds (greater than or equal to 45, 55 and 65 years) while lifting shutdowns and physical distancing in the community. Compared with a scenario with sustained community-wide measures, all age-stratified intervention scenarios resulted in a substantial epidemic resurgence, with hospital and ICU bed usage exceeding healthcare capacities even at the lowest age threshold. Individuals under the age threshold were severely impacted by the implementation of all age-stratified interventions, with large numbers of avoidable deaths. Among all explored scenarios, shielding older individuals led to the most detrimental outcomes (hospitalizations, ICU admissions and mortality) for all ages, including the targeted population. This study suggests that, in the absence of community-wide measures, implementing interventions exclusively within vulnerable age groups could result in unmanageable levels of infections, with serious outcomes within the population. Caution is therefore warranted regarding early relaxation of community-wide restrictions.
引用
收藏
页数:12
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