An assessment of the 3 February 2002 Cay (Turkey) earthquake (Mw=6.6): Modeling of ground motions and felt intensity distribution

Estimation of earthquake ground motions is important for several purposes including seismic design, analysis, risk mitigation and disaster management. For regions with insufficient data, simulations become critical, particularly for earthquake engineering applications requiring full ground motion data. In this study, stochastic finite-fault simulation of the 3 February 2002 Cay event is presented at three available stations within epicentral distances less than 200 km. The simulations are initially validated at these stations. Next, simulations of the earthquake at dummy nodes are performed in Afyon region. The simulated ground motion records for the Cay event are evaluated by comparing them against selected ground motion prediction equations. Then, the distributions of the observed intensity and damage are compared against the distribution of simulated intensities. The results reveal that the earthquake is simulated effectively.