Mechanically Coupled Areas on the Plate Interface in the Nankai Trough, Japan and a Possible Seismic and Aseismic Rupture Scenario for Megathrust Earthquakes

Quantifying the stress distribution or finding mechanically coupled areas on the plate interface is fundamentally important for conjecturing megathrust earthquakes that may occur in the future. Kinematically coupled areas, or slip deficit distributions, on plate interfaces were commonly estimated by geodetic-data analyses. However, mechanically coupled areas are not identical to the kinematically coupled areas. The present study develops an inversion method to estimate the stress rate distribution as mechanically coupled areas. We apply this method to the Nankai trough subduction zone, southwestern Japan to detect mechanically coupled areas. Some of the estimated coupled areas correspond to the rupture areas of historical earthquakes. Others are in a deeper part, which may release the stress as aseismic slip. We then construct a rupture scenario that can occur in the Nankai trough in the future based on the estimated mechanical coupling, assuming that an effective stress accumulation period is 100 years. The scenario consists of a foreshock of M-W 8.0 followed by an afterslip of M-W 7.7 and a mainshock of M-W 8.2. Although the moment magnitude of the afterslip is slightly smaller than the foreshock, the strain energy released by the foreshock is significantly larger than the afterslip. In order to compare events when the stress drops are significantly different, it is useful to use the minimum released strain energy, or available energy, to characterize the magnitude of the events.