Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts

被引：12

作者：

Schultes, Anselm ^{[1
,2
]}

Piontek, Franziska ^{[1
,2
]}

Soergel, Bjoern ^{[1
,2
]}

Rogelj, Joeri ^{[3
,4
]}

Baumstark, Lavinia ^{[1
,2
]}

Kriegler, Elmar ^{[1
,2
,7
]}

Edenhofer, Ottmar ^{[1
,2
,5
,6
]}

Luderer, Gunnar ^{[1
,2
,8
]}

机构：

[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

[2] Leibniz Assoc, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

[3] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Energy Climate & Environm Programme, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[4] Imperial Coll London, Ctr Environm Policy, Grantham Inst Climate Change & Environm, London SW7 2AZ, England

[5] Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, Torgauer Str 12-15, D-10829 Berlin, Germany

[6] Tech Univ Berlin, Secretariat EB 4-1,Str 17,Juni 145, D-10623 Berlin, Germany

[7] Univ Potsdam, Fac Econ & Social Sci, August Bebel Str 89, D-14482 Potsdam, Germany

[8] Tech Univ Berlin, Global Energy Syst Anal, Berlin, Germany

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2021年 / 16卷 / 10期

基金：

欧盟地平线“2020”;

关键词：

climate change; climate mitigation; climate impacts; integrated assessment; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS; CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS; SOCIAL COST; TIPPING POINTS; TEMPERATURE; GROWTH; POLICY; SCENARIOS; WEATHER; TARGETS;

D O I：

10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 C-circle, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 C-circle. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 C-circle limit only.

引用

页数：10