Modeling the energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions of the Canadian oil sands industry

In this study, the energy requirements associated with producing synthetic crude oil (SCO) and bitumen from oil sands are modeled and quantified, on the basis of current commercially used production schemes. The production schemes were (a) mined bitumen, upgraded to SCO; (b) thermal bitumen, upgraded to SCO; and (c) thermal bitumen, diluted. Additionally, three distinct bitumen-upgrading methods were modeled and incorporated into schemes a and b. In addition to energy demands, the model computes the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with supplying the energy required to produce bitumen and SCO. This study comprises two distinct situations. The first is the base case in which all the energy is produced using current technology, in the year 2003. The second situation is a future production scenario, where energy demands are computed for SCO and bitumen production levels corresponding to the years 2012 and 2030. The results from the base case include the energy demands for producing thermal bitumen and mined bitumen, upgraded to SCO. These demands are expressed in terms of amounts of hot water, steam, power, hydrogen, diesel fuel, and process fuel for upgrading processes. The model output indicates that the majority of the GHG emissions (70-80%) result during bitumen upgrading. Additionally, it was found that steam, hydrogen, and power are the most GHG-intensive energy inputs to the process, accounting for 80% of the GHG emissions in the base case. CO2 accounts for 95% of the total GHG, while methane and nitrous oxide are responsible for the remaining GHG emissions of all the producers in the base case. The energy demands for production estimates in the years 2012 and 2030 are also presented. Of all energy commodities, steam demands for thermal bitumen extraction, as well as hydrogen demands for upgrading are poised to multiply roughly 6-fold by 2030, with respect to 2003 levels. The model results reveal that electricity and steam demands for upgrading and mining operations will roughly double by 2012 and increase by a factor of 2.4 between 2012 and 2030.