Load Duration Curve in the Long-term Energy Mix Optimization

European Energy and Climate Policy causes the rapid development of variable renewable energy sources (wind turbines and PV installations). In such conditions, the power systems development planning has to meet the criterion of the lowest total costs and address the short-term aspects of power system operation to ensure the security of electricity supply. The natural approach to long-term generation expansion planning is an optimization. The methodology that can be used to address the intermittency of RES in long-term optimization models is the implementation of load duration curve or residual load duration curve. Such an approach enables the evaluation of the impact of unstable RES generation on the operation of large, conventional units by measurement of following parameters: reduction of annual peak load due to RES penetration, decrease in the use of capacity potential of conventional units and electricity overproduction. The aim of this research is to develop the long-term energy mix optimization methodology with the application of the residual load duration curve approach. The paper presents first approach to implementation of duration curves methodology to MILP, generation expansion planning model eMix.