Analysis of the evolution and future estimates of collected domestic solid waste in Joao Pessoa and its relation with other consumption indicators

This paper has the general purpose of analyzing the spatiotemporal variation of the amount of collected domestic solid waste (DSW) in Joao Pessoa districts between 2003 and 2010. The methodology accomplished a preliminary consistency analysis of DSW data, followed by determining per capita of DSW, annual variation rates of absolute values and per capita of DSW, correlation analysis for the year 2010 between DSW per capita and variables representing income, education, energy and water per capita consumption, and three future scenarios of DSW collection were traced until 2030. It was estimated an increase of 32.4% for the total DSW collected in the period 2003-2010, reaching in 2010 an equivalent to 0.806 kg.person(-1).day (-1), which is coherent with an earlier study that has monitored three single-family residences in the city. Such an increase is consequence not only of the population growth (15.1%), but also due to intensification in goods consumption. The relationship between DSW production and consumption patterns was highlighted by the strong correlation found between per capita of collected DSW and per capita of energy consumption, education and income variables. This corroborates the need of a cultural change regarding consumption, misuse and discard of solid waste towards environmental sustainability. If the rate of solid waste generation keeps growing, it is projected between 0.85 and 1.88 kg.person(-1).day (-1) about 2030, which will increase the challenge of collecting the DSW, landfill disposing and management, and the need of actions to mitigate potential environmental impacts.