The effect of the heatwave on the morbidity and mortality of diabetes patients; a meta-analysis for the era of the climate crisis

Introduction: From the perspective of public health, the climate crisis is also causing many health problems worldwide. In contrast with the cardiovascular, respiratory, and urinary system, the adverse effects of heatwaves on the endocrine system, particularly in people with diabetes mellitus (DM), are not well established to date. In this study, the author investigated the morbidity and mortality changes of DM patients during heatwave periods, using the meta-analysis method. Methods: The author searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library until March 12, 2020. The quality of each included study was assessed using the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Quality Assessment tools. The meta-analysis was conducted using the studies with a relative risk (RR) estimate and odds ratio (OR) estimate. The subgroup analysis and the meta-ANOVA analysis were conducted using various covariates, including lag days considered. Results: Only 36 articles were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled RR of mortality and of morbidity for diabetics under the heatwave were 1.18 (95% CI 1.13-1.25) and 1.10 (95% CI 1.06-1.14). For mortality studies, whether or not the lag days considered were 10 days or more was only a significant covariate for the meta-ANOVA analysis (Q = 3.17, p = 0.075). For morbidity studies, the definition of the heatwave (Q = 65.94, p < 0.0001), whether or not the maximum temperature was 40 degrees C or more (Q = 4.78, p = 0.0288), and the type of morbidity (Q = 60.23, p < 0.0001) were significant covariates for the analysis. Discussion: The mortality and morbidity risks of diabetes patients under the heatwave were mildly increased by about 18 percent for mortality and 10 percent for overall morbidity. The mortality risk of diabetics can increase more when lag days of 10 days or more are considered than when lag days of less than 10 days are considered. These valuable findings can be used in developing public health strategies to cope with heatwaves in the current era of aggravating global warming and climate crisis.