Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

被引：72

作者：

Yang, Juan ^{[1
,2
]}

Marziano, Valentina ^{[3
]}

Deng, Xiaowei ^{[1
]}

Guzzetta, Giorgio ^{[3
]}

Zhang, Juanjuan ^{[1
,2
]}

Trentini, Filippo ^{[3
]}

Cai, Jun ^{[1
]}

Poletti, Piero ^{[3
]}

Zheng, Wen ^{[1
]}

Wang, Wei ^{[1
]}

Wu, Qianhui ^{[1
]}

Zhao, Zeyao ^{[1
]}

Dong, Kaige ^{[1
]}

Zhong, Guangjie ^{[1
]}

Viboud, Cecile ^{[4
]}

Merler, Stefano ^{[3
]}

Ajelli, Marco ^{[5
,6
]}

Yu, Hongjie ^{[1
,2
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Fudan Univ, Shanghai Inst Infect Dis & Biosecur, Sch Publ Hlth, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[2] Fudan Univ, Key Lab Publ Hlth Safety, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[3] Bruno Kessler Fdn, Ctr Hlth Emergencies, Trento, Italy

[4] NIH, Div Int Epidemiol & Populat Studies, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bldg 10, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[5] Indiana Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA

[6] Northeastern Univ, Lab Modeling Biol & Sociotech Syst, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[7] Fudan Univ, Huashan Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Shanghai, Peoples R China

来源：

NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR | 2021年 / 5卷 / 08期

关键词：

STRATEGIES; EPIDEMIC; AGE;

D O I：

10.1038/s41562-021-01155-z

中图分类号：

B84 [心理学];

学科分类号：

04 ; 0402 ;

摘要：

Using data-driven epidemiological modelling, Yu et al. estimate that, even with increasing vaccine availability, China will have to maintain stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions for at least a year to prevent new widespread outbreaks of COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (R-t) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring R-t below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

引用

页码：1009 / +

页数：23

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