Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Nino

被引:63
作者
Yin, Yi [1 ]
Ciais, Philippe [1 ]
Chevallier, Frederic [1 ]
van der Werf, Guido R. [2 ]
Fanin, Thierry [2 ]
Broquet, Gregoire [1 ]
Boesch, Hartmut [3 ,4 ]
Cozic, Anne [1 ]
Hauglustaine, Didier [1 ]
Szopa, Sophie [1 ]
Wang, Yilong [1 ]
机构
[1] CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, UMR8212, Gif Sur Yvette, France
[2] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Dept Earth Sci, Earth & Climate Cluster, Amsterdam, Netherlands
[3] Univ Leicester, Dept Phys & Astron, Earth Observat Sci, Leicester, Leics, England
[4] NERC Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Leicester, Leics, England
基金
欧洲研究理事会;
关键词
peat fire; carbon emissions; atmospheric inversion; carbon monoxide; MOPITT; carbon cycle; BIOMASS BURNING EMISSIONS; OIL PALM; DEFORESTATION; INDONESIA; FOREST; ALGORITHM; PRODUCT; PEAT;
D O I
10.1002/2016GL070971
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
The large peatland carbon stocks in the land use change-affected areas of equatorial Asia are vulnerable to fire. Combining satellite observations of active fire, burned area, and atmospheric concentrations of combustion tracers with a Bayesian inversion, we estimated the amount and variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia over the period 1997-2015. Emissions in 2015 were of 0.510.17Pg carbonless than half of the emissions from the previous 1997 extreme El Nino, explained by a less acute water deficit. Fire severity could be empirically hindcasted from the cumulative water deficit with a lead time of 1 to 2months. Based on CMIP5 climate projections and an exponential empirical relationship found between fire carbon emissions and water deficit, we infer a total fire carbon loss ranging from 12 to 25Pg by 2100 which is a significant positive feedback to climate warming.
引用
收藏
页码:10472 / 10479
页数:8
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