The Arab spring: why did the uprisings miss the monarchies?

Tunisia's uprising ignited the 2011 Arab revolt, spreading rapidly across the republics and leaving, for the most part, the monarchies untouched. Explanations for why uprisings did not reach the monarchies have focused on oil wealth, regime legitimacy, economic grievances, and political culture as possible factors. However, attention to these factors leaves some anomalies unexplained. I argue that unlike the republics, long-term expanding of civil liberties in the monarchies accounts for why uprisings did not reach these countries too. Civil liberties affect uprisings via two mechanisms: citizens' perception of less grievances relative to the past, and their expectation of higher benefit if the regime endures. Enjoying more freedoms relative to earlier decades, monarchies' citizens felt less aggrieved and more optimistic that their political systems were capable and willing to grant more liberties in the future. Together, these mechanisms explain why Tunisia's revolution did not stimulate similar revolutionary attempts in these countries.