A Novel Fuzzy Expert System for Project Portfolio Risk Management: Case of a Construction

Executive managers of organizations are seeking for solutions to complete projects within the predetermined duration, budget and quality. Obviously, improper risk management processes are the main reasons for the failure of projects. This research aims to design a new fuzzy expert system for project portfolio risk management. In this paper, the main risk factors of the project portfolio are identified through library research and expert judgment. Then, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is used to identify the causal relationships among risk factors. Subsequently, the combination of Fuzzy-analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods is exploited to determine the most important risk factors. The results show that the risk of laws, regulations and warranties, the risk of procurement and distribution costs and the risk of information system failure occupy the first to third ranks in the study project, respectively. In the following step, different risk response strategies are proposed to tackle the major risk factors. Finally, a fuzzy multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed to select the optimal risk response strategies considering the three main objectives of time, cost and quality. The findings showed that the proposed fuzzy expert system has the capability and efficiency for identifying and assessing the risks of the project portfolio and selecting the optimal risk response strategies in the case study.