Modelling and optimal control of multi strain epidemics, with application to COVID-19

被引：56

作者：

Arruda, Edilson F. ^{[1
]}

Das, Shyam S. ^{[3
]}

Dias, Claudia M. ^{[3
]}

Pastore, Dayse H. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Southampton, Southampton Business Sch, Dept Decis Analyt & Risk, Southampton, Hants, England

[2] Fed Ctr Technol Educ Celso Suckow Fonseca, Dept Basic & Gen Disciplines, Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

[3] Univ Fed Rural Rio de Janeiro, Multidisciplinary Inst, Grad Program Math & Computat Modeling, Nova Iguacu, RJ, Brazil

来源：

PLOS ONE | 2021年 / 16卷 / 09期

关键词：

SARS-COV-2;

D O I：

10.1371/journal.pone.0257512

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Reinfection and multiple viral strains are among the latest challenges in the current COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, epidemic models often consider a single strain and perennial immunity. To bridge this gap, we present a new epidemic model that simultaneously considers multiple viral strains and reinfection due to waning immunity. The model is general, applies to any viral disease and includes an optimal control formulation to seek a trade-off between the societal and economic costs of mitigation. We validate the model, with and without mitigation, in the light of the COVID-19 epidemic in England and in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. The model can derive optimal mitigation strategies for any number of viral strains, whilst also evaluating the effect of distinct mitigation costs on the infection levels. The results show that relaxations in the mitigation measures cause a rapid increase in the number of cases, and therefore demand more restrictive measures in the future.

引用

页数：18

共 49 条

[1]

Bacaër N, 2011, SHORT HISTORY OF MATHEMATICAL POPULATION DYNAMICS, P89, DOI 10.1007/978-0-85729-115-8_16

[2] Morphology and morphogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 in Vero-E6 cells [J].

Barreto-Vieira, Debora Ferreira ;

Nunes da Silva, Marcos Alexandre ;

Garcia, Cristiana Couto ;

Miranda, Milene Dias ;

Matos, Aline da Rocha ;

Caetano, Braulia Costa ;

Resende, Paola Cristina ;

Motta, Fernando Couto ;

Siqueira, Marilda Mendonca ;

Girard-Dias, Wendell ;

Archanjo, Braulio Soares ;

Barth, Ortrud Monika .

MEMORIAS DO INSTITUTO OSWALDO CRUZ, 2021, 116

[3] Analysis and Optimal Control of a Multistrain SEIR Epidemic Model with Saturated Incidence Rate and Treatment [J].

Bentaleb, Dounia ;

Harroudi, Sanaa ;

Amine, Saida ;

Allali, Karam .

DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS, 2023, 31 (04) :907-923

[4] The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 [J].

Bertozzi, Andrea L. ;

Franco, Elisa ;

Mohler, George ;

Short, Martin B. ;

Sledge, Daniel .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (29) :16732-16738

[5]

Bonifácio LP, 2020, REV SOC BRAS MED TRO, V53

[6] The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in US cities [J].

Bootsma, Martin C. J. ;

Ferguson, Neil M. .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2007, 104 (18) :7588-7593

[7] Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic [J].

Buss, Lewis F. ;

Prete Jr, Carlos A. ;

Abrahim, Claudia M. M. ;

Mendrone Jr, Alfredo ;

Salomon, Tassila ;

de Almeida-Neto, Cesar ;

Franca, Rafael F. O. ;

Belotti, Maria C. ;

Carvalho, Maria P. S. S. ;

Costa, Allyson G. ;

Crispim, Myuki A. E. ;

Ferreira, Suzete C. ;

Fraiji, Nelson A. ;

Gurzenda, Susie ;

Whittaker, Charles ;

Kamaura, Leonardo T. ;

Takecian, Pedro L. ;

Peixoto, Pedro da Silva ;

Oikawa, Marcio K. ;

Nishiya, Anna S. ;

Rocha, Vanderson ;

Salles, Nanci A. ;

de Souza Santos, Andreza Aruska ;

da Silva, Martirene A. ;

Custer, Brian ;

Parag, Kris, V ;

Barral-Netto, Manoel ;

Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ;

Pereira, Rafael H. M. ;

Pybus, Oliver G. ;

Busch, Michael P. ;

Castro, Marcia C. ;

Dye, Christopher ;

Nascimento, Vitor H. ;

Faria, Nuno R. ;

Sabino, Ester C. .

SCIENCE, 2021, 371 (6526) :288-+

[8]

Callaway E, 2020, NATURE, V585, P174, DOI 10.1038/d41586-020-02544-6

[9] Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil [J].

Candido, Darlan S. ;

Claro, Ingra M. ;

de Jesus, Jaqueline G. ;

Souza, William M. ;

Moreira, Filipe R. R. ;

Dellicour, Simon ;

Mellan, Thomas A. ;

du Plessis, Louis ;

Pereira, Rafael H. M. ;

Sales, Flavia C. S. ;

Manuli, Erika R. ;

Theze, Julien ;

Almeida, Luiz ;

Menezes, Mariane T. ;

Voloch, Carolina M. ;

Fumagalli, Marcilio J. ;

Coletti, Thais M. ;

Silva, Camila A. M. ;

Ramundo, Mariana S. ;

Amorim, Mariene R. ;

Hoeltgebaum, Henrique H. ;

Mishra, Swapnil ;

Gill, Mandev S. ;

Carvalho, Luiz M. ;

Buss, Lewis F. ;

Prete Jr, Carlos A. ;

Ashworth, Jordan ;

Nakaya, Helder, I ;

Peixoto, Pedro S. ;

Brady, Oliver J. ;

Nicholls, Samuel M. ;

Tanuri, Amilcar ;

Rossi, Atila D. ;

Braga, Carlos K., V ;

Gerber, Alexandra L. ;

Guimaraes, Ana Paula de C. ;

Gaburo Jr, Nelson ;

Alencar, Cecila Salete ;

Ferreira, Alessandro C. S. ;

Lima, Cristiano X. ;

Levi, Jose Eduardo ;

Granato, Celso ;

Ferreira, Giulia M. ;

Francisco Jr, Ronaldo S. ;

Granja, Fabiana ;

Garcia, Marcia T. ;

Moretti, Maria Luiza ;

Perroud Jr, Mauricio W. ;

Castineiras, Terezinha M. P. P. ;

Lazari, Carolina S. .

SCIENCE, 2020, 369 (6508) :1255-+

[10] A Simulation of a COVID-19 Epidemic Based on a Deterministic SEIR Model [J].

Carcione, Jose M. ;

Santos, Juan E. ;

Bagaini, Claudio ;

Ba, Jing .

FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, 2020, 8

← 1 2 3 4 5 →