Does Growth Rate in Oral Reading Fluency Matter in Predicting Reading Comprehension Achievement?

In this study. we examined the relationship of growth trajectories of oral reading fluency, vocabulary, phonological awareness, letter-naming fluency, and nonsense word reading fluency from 1st grade to 3rd grade with reading comprehension in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd grades. Data from 12,536 children who were followed from kindergarten to 3rd grade longitudinally were used. These children were administered Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills subtests, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test Third Edition, and reading comprehension (Stanford Achievement Test, 10th ed.) tasks multiple times in each year. Students' initial status and rate of growth in each predictor within each grade were estimated using individual growth modeling. These estimates were then used as predictors in dominance regression analyses to examine relative contributions that the predictors made to the outcome: reading comprehension. Among the 1st-grade predictors, individual differences in growth rate in oral reading fluency in 1st grade, followed by vocabulary skills and the autoregressive effect of reading comprehension, made the most contribution to reading comprehension in 3rd grade. Among the 2nd- and 3rd-grade predictors, children's initial status in oral reading fluency had the strongest relationships with their reading comprehension skills in 3rd grade.