Can VCs Time the Market? An Analysis of Exit Choice for Venture-backed Firms

We use a sample of 8,163 venture-backed companies over three decades to test the competing hypotheses that levels and relative shares of IPO (initial public offering) and M&A(mergers and acquisitions) exits are affected by market timing, versus pseudo-market timing that reflects market conditions. We find evidence of pseudo-market timing. Venture-backed issuers react to market or sector runups but do not predict downturns. We find no evidence that firm-specific market timing contributes to IPO or M&A waves. We also find that acquirers turn to acquisition when other opportunities are unattractive, and that the market may be slow to recognize that such opportunities are declining. (JEL G14, G24, G32, G34)