A global renewable energy system. A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

被引：58

作者：

Foyn, T. Helene Ystanes ^{[1
]}

Karlsson, Kenneth ^{[1
]}

Balyk, Olexandr ^{[1
]}

Grohnheit, Poul Erik ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Tech Univ Denmark, DTU Climate Ctr, Syst Anal Div, Riso Natl Lab Sustainable Energy, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark

[2] Tech Univ Denmark, Energy Syst Anal Syst Anal Div, Div Riso Natl Lab Sustainable Energy, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark

来源：

APPLIED ENERGY | 2011年 / 88卷 / 02期

关键词：

Global energy models; GHG reduction scenarios; Renewable energy; Energy optimisation models; TIAM;

D O I：

10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.05.003

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

This paper aims to test the ETSAP(2)-TIAM global energy system model and to try out how far it can go towards a global 100% renewable energy system with the existing model database This will show where limits in global resources are met and where limits in the data fed to the model until now are met Results from the modelling are global and regional energy consumption emission of greenhouse gasses and thereby potential increase in global mean temperature Furthermore total system costs are compared to a reference scenario Existing analysis with TIAM shows different ways of reaching the 2 degrees C target (increase in global mean temperature) and also how uncertainty on different factors influences the optimal solution The main conclusion from existing analysis with TIAM is that the 2 degrees C target is possible to reach but it will be expensive Another very important point is that if uncertainty on the value of the climate sensitivity (C(s)) is taken into account then the optimal strategy calls for early action compared to a full foresight optimisation using the most probable value of C(s) (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

引用

页码：526 / 534

页数：9

共 8 条

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