The potential effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on tropical forest soils and biogeochemical cycling

Tropical forests are responsible for a large proportion of the global terrestrial C flux annually for natural ecosystems. Increased atmospheric CO2 and changes in climate are likely to affect the distribution of C pools in the tropics and the rate of cycling through vegetation and soils. In this paper, I review the literature on the pools and fluxes of carbon in tropical forests, and the relationship of these to nutrient cycling and climate. Tropical moist and humid forests have the highest rates of annual net primary productivity and the greatest carbon flux from soil respiration globally. Tropical dry forests have lower rates of carbon circulation, but may have greater soil organic carbon storage, especially at depths below 1 meter. Data from tropical elevation gradients were used to examine the sensitivity of biogeochemical cycling to incremental changes in temperature and rainfall. These data show significant positive correlations of litterfall N concentrations with temperature and decomposition rates. Increased atmospheric CO2 and changes in climate are expected to alter carbon and nutrient allocation patterns and storage in tropical forest. Modeling and experimental studies suggest that even a small increase in temperature and CO2 concentrations results in more rapid decomposition rates, and a large initial CO2 efflux from moist tropical soils. Soil P limitation or reductions in C:N and C:P ratios of litterfall could eventually limit the size of this flux. Increased frequency of fires in dry forest and hurricanes in moist and humid forests are expected to reduce the ecosystem carbon storage capacity over longer time periods.