Incidence and recurrence of depression from adolescence to early adulthood: A longitudinal follow-up of the Mexican Adolescent Mental Health Survey

Background: Depression is a leading cause of disease burden around the globe, often develops during adolescence and is recurrent. Thus, disentangling risk factors for incidence from those of recurrence during adolescence is relevant and might suggest different strategies for prevention of onset than for relapse. The aim was to evaluate the relative risk of socio-demographic and clinical factors and traumatic events associated to incidence and recurrence of depression in youth from Mexico City. Methods: This is a prospective longitudinal general population survey in which 1071 respondents from the Mexican Adolescent Mental Health Survey were interviewed between the ages of 12 and 17 and again eight years later when they were between 19 and 26 years of age. The World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview evaluated incidence and persistence of major depression and risk factors. Results: Eight-year incidence was 12.9% while recurrence was 46.1%. Risk factors for incidence (female sex, any incident trauma, and specifically sexual abuse and an other/private event) differed from the risk factors for recurrence (childhood onset and domestic violence) with the exception of having a parent with depression, which was associated to increased risk for both. Limitations: The follow-up response rate was limited by inability to locate participants at wave II. Statistical power was limited for persistence due to low rate of depression at wave I. Conclusions: Intervening with both depressed and non-depressed children of parents with depression may have beneficial effects on both the development of depression as well as recurrence.