Uncertainty Estimations of the Annual Energy Production in a Wind Farm by the Use of Monte Carlo Simulations and Measured Data

Uncertainty estimations of the annual energy production (AEP) are an important indicator for project feasibility assessments and project financing attraction of wind farm development projects. The AEP uncertainty estimation results can vary depending on the experience and know-how of the analyst regarding uncertainty components and criteria used. In this study, we developed a calculation method and procedure using measured data and Monte Carlo simulations at the site to address the problem in which the uncertainty estimation results are dependent on the analyst. The AEP uncertainty was estimated for four test cases: two onshore and two offshore wind farms. As the wind shear uncertainty, which is a nonlinear uncertainty factor, increased, the difference in the uncertainty of the AEP estimated using GUM and MCS increased. Moreover, the measure-correlate-predict uncertainty results influenced the AEP uncertainty significantly.