Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia

被引:27
作者
Perez-Florez, Mauricio [1 ,2 ]
Ocampo, Clara Beatriz [1 ]
Valderrama-Ardila, Carlos [3 ]
Alexander, Neal [1 ]
机构
[1] Ctr Int Entrenamiento & Invest Med, Cali, Colombia
[2] Pontificia Univ Javeriana, Cali, Colombia
[3] Univ Icesi, Dept Ciencias Biol, Cali, Colombia
来源
MEMORIAS DO INSTITUTO OSWALDO CRUZ | 2016年 / 111卷 / 07期
关键词
cutaneous leishmaniasis; environmental risk factors; Colombian Andean region; spatial analysis; KALA-AZAR; VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS; POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; RISK; VECTOR; TRANSMISSION; PSYCHODIDAE; DIPTERA; STATE;
D O I
10.1590/0074-02760160074
中图分类号
R38 [医学寄生虫学]; Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ; 100103 ;
摘要
The objective of this research was to identify environmental risk factors for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombia and map high-risk municipalities. The study area was the Colombian Andean region, comprising 715 rural and urban municipalities. We used 10 years of CL surveillance: 2000-2009. We used spatial-temporal analysis - conditional autoregressive Poisson random effects modelling - in a Bayesian framework to model the dependence of municipality-level incidence on land use, climate, elevation and population density. Bivariable spatial analysis identified rainforests, forests and secondary vegetation, temperature, and annual precipitation as positively associated with CL incidence. By contrast, livestock agroecosystems and temperature seasonality were negatively associated. Multivariable analysis identified land use - rainforests and agro-livestock - and climate - temperature, rainfall and temperature seasonality - as best predictors of CL. We conclude that climate and land use can be used to identify areas at high risk of CL and that this approach is potentially applicable elsewhere in Latin America.
引用
收藏
页码:433 / +
页数:13
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