Maturation reaction norm evolution under varying conditions of eco-evolutionary change

Probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs) are commonly used to infer evolution of maturation age and size in wild fish stocks, but how well estimates from phenotypic data actually reflect underlying genotypes is debated. We used an eco- genetic model of a commercially harvested freshwater fish to simulate populations undergoing various levels of fisheries-induced evolution and density-dependent feedback and evaluated effects on the estimation of PMRNs. We estimated PMRNs from phenotypic data sampled from simulated populations (age, length, and maturation status of individuals), as is done for wild stocks, and compared estimates with the known maturation genotypes of individuals in the simulated population. PMRN estimates were robust to changes in the strength of density-dependent growth and high levels of fisheries- induced evolution. However, our ability to detect slower rates of evolution was limited, especially when individuals matured within a narrow range of ages. Furthermore, low numbers of immature or mature individuals within a given age class limited our ability to robustly estimate midpoints for more than one or two ages, despite our large sample sizes (n = 200 randomly sampled individuals of each age per year), highlighting a challenge with this approach. Nonetheless, this study suggests that the widely applied method of estimating PMRNs from readily available phenotypic data to detect underlying evolution of maturation schedule is robust to some key factors that vary in wild populations.