Evaluating the Effect of Policies and the Development of Charging Infrastructure on Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China

被引:26
作者
Yu, Jiali [1 ]
Yang, Peng [2 ]
Zhang, Kai [2 ]
Wang, Faping [2 ]
Miao, Lixin [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Tsinghua Univ, Tsinghua Berkeley Shenzhen Inst, Shenzhen Environm Sci & New Energy Technol Engn L, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
[2] Tsinghua Univ, Grad Sch Shenzhen, Res Ctr Modern Logist, Tsinghua Campus, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
electric vehicle; diffusion; system dynamics model; policy; charging infrastructure; phase out strategy; ALTERNATIVE-FUEL VEHICLES; MODELING MARKET DIFFUSION; WORLD DRIVING DATA; PLUG-IN HYBRID; REFUELING INFRASTRUCTURE; ADOPTION; INCENTIVES; CARS; DYNAMICS; HYDROGEN;
D O I
10.3390/su10103394
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
China has been one of the most aggressive countries in electric vehicle (EV) promotion. However, private EV sales fail to achieve the government's target. In particular, cutting purchase subsidies poses great uncertainty in relation to EV diffusion. In this research, a system dynamics model aims to investigate the influence of government policies, infrastructure development plans, the duration of policies, and the phase out strategy of policies. Parameters relating to consumers' preferences are drawn from a questionnaire survey, which is conducted in Shenzhen, the pioneer city in China's EV promotion. The result of a scenario analysis shows that purchase subsidies, purchase restrictions and driving restrictions are the most effective policies for EV promotion. Driving restrictions are more effective but less easy to enforce than purchase restrictions. The number and location of charging piles are much more important than large charging stations. Moreover, EV diffusion can be self-sufficient after current policies have been maintained for 11 years. We find that the gradual removal of subsidies will cause a four-year delay in EV sales entering rapid growth in Shenzhen. However, cutting subsidies in cities without purchase restrictions will cause the failure of EV promotion.
引用
收藏
页数:25
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