Global Incidence, Progression, and Risk Factors of Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Projection of Disease Statistics in 30 Years: A Modeling Study

Objective: Age-related macular degeneration(AMD) has become a major cause of visual impairment worldwide, especially in the elderly. Estimates of incidence, progression rates, and risk factors of AMD vary among studies, complicating the understanding of its epidemiology. Methods: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, literature published up to March 1, 2021, was searched in both English and Chinese databases. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches were used to estimate pooled incidence, progression, and 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Results: Thirty studies were included. The pooled annual early and late AMD incidence rates were 1.59 (95% CrI: 1.18-2.11) and 0.23 (95% CrI: 0.14-0.34) per 100 person-years, respectively. The annual progression rate of AMD was 5.5 (95% CrI: 2.3-8.8) per 100 person-years. Smoking was an independent risk factor for both early and late AMD, whereas age, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and alcohol consumption were risk factors for early AMD incidence only. The projected number of new cases of early and late AMD in 2050 would be 39.05 million (95% CrI: 23.12-63.57) and 6.41 million (95% CrI: 3.37-13.22), respectively. Conclusion: The prediction the number of new cases of AMD is not equal across the globe. Our findings indicate the need for more rigorous control and prevention measures in AMD focus on its risk factors for early intervention. The epidemiological estimates reported in this study could inform to identify effective strategies for preventing AMD worldwide.