Study of the Prediction Method for Highway Traffic Accident Trend

被引：0

作者：

Zhang, Guirong ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Zhulin ^{[1
]}

Liu, Suyuan ^{[1
]}

Guo, Rongchun ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Shandong Jiaotong Univ, Jinan, Peoples R China

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 10TH CONFERENCE ON MAN-MACHINE-ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM ENGINEERING | 2010年

关键词：

Highway; traffic accident; trend; prediction method;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TP3 [计算技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

Statistics of Ji-Qing highway traffic accidents in a period of 10 years are analyzed before 11 kinds of mathematical model are applied to fit the data of highway traffic accidents, the number of traffic accidents, the number of casualty so as to obtain the fitting curve equation. The forecast parameters of a variety of curve prediction models are calculated so that the four highway traffic accident indicators forecast for 10 years could be found out. By calculating the average absolute percentage inaccuracy, the forecast effect value is obtained. Then, by applying the preferred method, the best mathematical model of the four indicators of the highway traffic accidents is proved to be the linear regression equation. Finally, the four indicators of highway traffic accidents for the next five years are predicted and fitted by applying the best mathematical model, and the fitting results show that the best mathematical model are feasible.

引用

页码：319 / 322

页数：4