A district-level analysis for measuring the effects of climate change on production of agricultural crops, i.e., wheat and paddy: evidence from India

The present study aims to examine the impact of climate change on wheat and rice yield in Punjab, India, during 1981-2017. The study employs fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and pooled mean group (PMG) approaches. The Pedroni cointegration has established a long-run relationship of climate variables with rice and wheat crops. FMOLS and DOLS models show that minimum temperature has a positive effect on both wheat and rice. In contrast, the maximum temperature is found to be negatively contributing to both crops. Rainfall has a significant adverse impact on the production of wheat. In the study period, seasonal rainfall has been found detrimental for the production of wheat and rice crops, indicating that excess rainfall proved counterproductive. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test has revealed a unidirectional causality running from minimum temperature, rainfall, and maximum temperature for rice and wheat production. The findings of the study suggest that the government should invest in developing stress-tolerant varieties of wheat and rice, managing crop residuals to curb other environmental effects, and sustaining natural resources for ensuring food security.