Dynamic study of tuberculosis mortality in Sao Paulo State, Brazil: a Bayesian approach

被引：3

作者：

Oliveira dos Santos Junior, James Dean ^{[1
]}

Pereira, Basilio de Braganca ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Fed Amazonas, Dept Estat, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil

[2] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Hosp Univ Clementino Fraga Filho, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

来源：

CADERNOS DE SAUDE PUBLICA | 2011年 / 27卷 / 07期

关键词：

Tuberculosis; Mortality; Validity of Tests; Reproducibility of Tests;

D O I：

10.1590/S0102-311X2011000700016

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

This study used dynamic linear models to analyze the dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) mortality in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The study confirms previous findings of a decline in TB mortality in State in the last decade, while pointing to an increase in deaths beginning in 2005. Analysis of the two most frequent underlying causes pointed to HIV/TB co-infection. Forecasts for the next two years were performed, providing little evidence to support a continuing downward trend in the number of TB-related deaths.

引用

页码：1415 / 1422

页数：8

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