Sensitivity analysis of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model output variables to the thunderstorm lifecycle and its application

Accurate and timely forecasts of thunderstorms at lead times of more than 6 h can greatly improve the efficiency of air traffic flow management. To achieve this goal, thunderstorms occurring at Urumqi International Airport in 2020 were investigated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output variables. An attempt was made to study the sensitivity of WRF output variables to the different stages (cumulus, mature, and dissipating) of the thunderstorm lifecycle. The variables considered in this paper include the wind speed (WSPD), composite radar reflectivity, echo top height, convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and lift index (LI). It was found that CIN is the most sensitive to an approaching thunderstorm. WSPD is extremely sensitive to the thunderstorm occurrence, closely followed by CIN. CAPE, CIN, and LI are all sensitive to dissipating thunderstorms. To improve thunderstorm forecasts, a simple and practical objective thunderstorm forecasting method, i.e., the thunderstorm probability (TSP) forecasting method, based on the combination of the above-mentioned variables, was proposed. Comparison of objective TSP forecasts and manual subjective forecasts indicated that TSP forecasts performed much better than did manual forecasts over the summer period of 2020.