Forecasting Service Quality Dynamics Based on Integrated Method with GM(1,1) Model and Markov Chain

Dynamics of quality attributes derived from Kano model has been recognized as one of the most interesting and fruitful developments of attractive quality theory. The purpose of this study is to propose an integrated method with GM(1,1) model and Markov chain to forecast the dynamics of service quality attributes with limited data and explore the existence of the alternative life cycles. Further, an empirical study of the express delivery industry in China is conducted at four points of time (the year of 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2013) to verify the feasibility of the method. This study not only provides a quantitative method for forecasting the dynamics of service quality attributes with limited information, but also gives evidence for the existence of alternative life cycles of service quality attributes.