Scenarios of Carbon Emissions from the Power Sector in Guangdong Province

The electricity power sector plays an important role in both CO2 emissions as well as the target contribution of non-fossil energy. Although the target for the reduction of CO2 emission intensity in Guangdong (GD) has not been released by the central government, GD has set a goal for increasing the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 25% in the provincial 13th Five-Year Plan. In this study, the CO2 emissions from the electric power sector and the corresponding share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption between 2005 and 2014 were analyzed. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) technique was applied for investigating the factors affecting the changes in CO2 emissions. The main results are as follows: in 2014, the CO2 emissions from the electric power sector were 286.54 Mt, of which the net purchased electricity accounted for 22.4%. Economic growth is the main contributor for the increase in CO2 emissions from the electric power sector. Electricity intensity, thermal generation efficiency, CO2 emission coefficient, and electricity supply mix slowed the growth of CO2 emissions. Several energy scenarios were developed, and results showed that the provincial target for the share of non-fossil fuels by 2020 would be achieved by all of the scenarios.