Spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural expansion and its effect on watershed degradation: a case from the mountains of Nepal

Expansion of agricultural at the cost of forested land is a common cause of watershed degradation in the mountain zones of developing countries. Many studies have been conducted to demonstrate land use changes in such regions. However, current knowledge regarding the changes, driving forces and implications of such change within the context of watershed development is limited. This study analyses changes in spatial patterns of agricultural land use and their consequences for watershed degradation during the 1976-2000 period along an altitude gradient in a watershed in Nepal, by means of remote sensing, GIS and the universal soil loss equation. Estimated soil loss ranged from 589 to 620 t ha(-1) y(-1), while areas of extreme hazard severity (> 100 t ha(-1)) increased from 9 to 14.5% from 1990 to 2000. Spatial distribution of soil loss in 2000 was characterized by 88% of total soil losses being from upland agricultural areas. The study determined that without considering other forms of land degradation, only water erosion was responsible for erosion of a substantial area in a short timeframe. Areas under upland cultivation are in an extremely vulnerable state, with these areas potentially no longer cultivable within a period of 6 years. As sustainability of the watershed is dependent on forests, continued depletion of forest resources will result in poor economic returns from agriculture for local people, together with loss of ecosystem services. Thus, in order to achieve the goal of watershed development, remaining forest lands must be kept under strict protection.